Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Why I think Beebe is (almost) telling the Truth

I am going to stick my neck out one more time on the Amy Henslee/Tonya Howarth case because, while all the evidence isn't in and won't be until the trial of Junior Lee Beebe, Jr, there is enough now that I feel comfortable proposing the theory that makes the most sense to me. And, I remind people once again, this is a theory, not a set of truths, and not an assignment of guilt. Theories are always in progress as one gathers more evidence. Even in "real" profiling - meaning I am working with a police department and have access to everything they do, theories are always in flux and this includes the ones the police develop. It is a process of analysis and a process of understanding, a process of uncovering the truth. It takes time and sometimes the truth never really comes out. Sometimes what people think is the truth turns out to be wrong. We can only do our best to analyze as objectively as we can and be willing to modify our theories as new information warrants changes. Everything here is an opinion - theories are opinions, no matter how scientific they are - nothing here is a legal determination. The court will be the final judge as to whether Junior Beebe is guilty or innocent and which crimes he will be convicted of, if any.

When Beebe was arrested, I was asked by The CBS Early Show if I thought he murdered both women, if he acted alone, and what the motive would be. Quite frankly, while I believed Beebe was there at the crime scene and killed at least Tonya for some reason, I had difficulty with any motive for Beebe murdering Amy. And the evidence (so far), indicates Amy was the target of the crime; she was shot face to face while Tonya was shot either running away or face down on the ground. If Tonya was shot first , Amy would been shot as she was trying to escape; the inner thigh wound and point blank chest wound would not likely be the result of the next two rounds.

Interestingly, Junior Lee Beebe Jr's confession and description of how the crime went down, matches the wounds on the body. Michigan State Police Detective Sgt. Diane Oppenheim testified to what Beebe told her and this was before he lawyered up and the autopsy came out. Although one can argue he had a few days to concoct a story that would match the evidence, the fact is the story does make sense except for the claim of self-defense; the homicide of Tonya Howarth would be an act of rage over the murder of Amy.

Since Amy would be the target of the crime, there is only one likely motive: jealousy. Jealousy on the part of Tonya or jealousy on the part of James Henslee. Now, herein lies a prime example as to why not being entirely truthful (or being deceptive) can make one a person of interest. James Henslee withheld information from law enforcement concerning the possible whereabouts of his wife and he may have not been truthful about what he believed or knew was going on with Amy. Now that I have a better timeline and better autopsy information, I believe I can rule out James Henslee as having any participation in the homicides of Amy and Tonya although I do believe he may have impeded the investigation. I will explain why.

In spite of some folks claiming Amy could have been threatened or abducted by Beebe, I believe the neighborhood witness who said she saw a woman who looked like Amy get into the car willingly is correct. I do not believe she was afraid of Beebe because she would have told James this. Also, no one has been saying that the four - James, Amy, BJ, and Tonya - had any falling out and refused to be around each other.

If Amy got into the truck willingly, she wanted to go with Beebe. If she did not call James before she went, she did not want him to know. When James found out Amy went with Beebe, red flags must have gone up for him. For her to do this behind his back suggests one of few things: sex or drugs or boredom, or a combination of these. Considering Amy was now staying at home, had no cell phone, and no house keys, and James was calling five or six times a day, I believe James was either a controlling husband or a worried one (or both).

So, when James found out where Amy had gone that Monday morning just about 10:45, he may well have been jealous or worried enough to drive straight over to Beebe's and see what was going on. And I think he did do that after he made his phone call to Beebe. I believe this likely this took place during the time that he said he was "cruising" around town.

James may have been jealous and this could be a motive or him to race over, blast in the door, grab the shotgun and kill his wife in a rage. Or he could have raced over and found his wife there but making a surprise present for him with the help of his cousin. But, there is a credible reason why James never actually showed up at the crime scene and this reason would take him off the person-of-interest list; Amy and Tonya were likely dead by the time James found out where his wife went.

Again, I believe Beebe was telling a basic truth when he said he picked up Amy and they were going to spend a little time together and then he was going to get her home before the 10 AM phone call came in from her husband. But before that hour arrived, Tonya was dropped off by Beebe's mother (assuming evidence doesn't show up that disproves this) by , found them together, and all hell broke loose.

There is further evidence that Beebe is telling the truth that Tonya went at Amy. Both women had some scrapes and bruises, the kind of thing a scuffle between two women would engender. They did not have contusions, smashed noses, and lacerations of the sort they would have gotten if a crazed psychopath went off on them. A struggle between the two women would cause minor injuries and the shot to the inner thigh of Amy likely the result of a gun that went off without any aiming involved. The second shot killing Amy would likely cause Beebe to be freaking out over her and give Tonya time to reload if it were a double barrel shotgun. Once he finds she is no longer alive, his attention would turn to Tonya, especially if she did say, "You're next!" However, if it was a pump shotgun (and it appears to be from the video I paused) all four shots could be shot in a row without reloading. Beebe says he was able to grab the gun when it jammed.

It makes more sense that Tonya might be the one who shot Amy if the shotgun was a pump. It is more likely for a novice or a woman who has less strength to short shuck a shotgun causing it to jam.

In their struggle for the gun, it is not unlikely that Beebe could have pulled the gun from her hands and slammed the butt of it into her kneecap, causing her to collapse to the floor.


Alternatively, he could have nailed her knee with a low martial arts sidekick with the same result. Once she hit the floor, he would pull the trigger two times quickly, aiming the barrel at the back of her head, killing Tonya instantly. There is blood in the doorway which makes sense. If Tonya charged in, she would have left the door open and when she fell to the floor it would be likely her head was in that location.

A slightly different scenario is also possible. Tonya could have been aiming at Beebe with the shotgun and Amy intervened and ended up getting shot in the struggle. Beebe could have pulled the shotgun from Tonya's hands, slammed the butt on her knee, knocking her to the ground, reloaded the gun himself, and fired the two shots into her head.

So, now we have Beebe sitting there wondering what the hell he is supposed to do now. He knows James is going to call at 10 AM as soon as Amy doesn't answer the phone. Sure enough, an hour later, the phone call comes in and James asks not if he knows where Amy is but if he came by the house. Beebe knows someone saw him pull up. So he admits he came by to borrow something but, when he knocked, Amy didn't answer.

Now, it only makes sense that James knew from the neighbor that Amy got in the truck (at this point Beebe doesn't know the neighbor also saw a girl get in the vehicle). Wouldn't he challenged Beebe? Wouldn't James say, "Wait a minute, my neighbor says she saw Amy get in the car." Remember how there was talk that the neighbor, being elderly, might have vision problems? I am sure Beebe said something like, "The neighbor must have been mistaken; she probably is blind as a bat."

James has to know Beebe is lying, but he probably wouldn't think it is because Beebe had two dead women in his trailer and didn't know what to do about it. Logically, James would hang up and drive over to Beebe's. Now, I have heard that Beebe left the property within that next hour (not a proven fact, but information from an anonymous source); he had a prior commitment and if he was trying to keep what happened a secret, he would have to pretend everything was normal. He would lock up the trailer and head out. If James arrived after he left, he would not find him or his wife there. He could have thought she went off with Beebe or with Tonya and, cross his fingers, she would be back by 3 PM with some explanation that he could accept. I don't think he saw the blood in the snow. I simply think he didn't see Beebe's truck at the front of the lot and so he would have gone home.

Now, 3 PM comes, his sons arrive home, and still no Amy. He knows something is strange, as he said on the 911 call, but I don't think he knows what exactly. He knows Amy left with Beebe and now he doesn't know where Amy and Beebe are or if they are still together, but he knows something is amiss. He calls the police but he does not tell the whole truth. I really don't think he wanted to call the police; I think he did so halfheartedly because he knew this is what he should do as a good husband, especially one whose wife is not involved in any questionable activities. He doesn't tell the police about Beebe and any of his suspicions; I believe he hoped Amy would eventually turn up with some good excuse and he wouldn't have to confront any unpleasant realities.

Unfortunately, Amy is truly missing. I question whether James ever told the police about Beebe, about Amy going with him, about Beebe telling him Tonya was also missing. From what I have read so far, it seems the police learned about Beebe from another source and they didn't learn about Tonya until they found her body buried alongside Amy's. At this point, I believe James simply said as little as possible, choosing not to find out the truth. If other family members hadn't brought in the search dogs (this is what I was told by an anonymous source) and the police hadn't found out about Beebe from someone other than James, it is possible the graves of Amy and Tonya would never have been found. Perhaps, this would have been preferable to James. Having a missing wife is very difficult but dealing with painful issues sometimes seems worse and it is often a human trait to simply shut down and not confront them. In a way, it may be that Beebe and James were doing the same thing from opposite sides of the crime. Both were deceptive and not forthcoming in order to protect themselves from added pain.

Many think Amy could not have been having an affair with Beebe; that he is using the affair as a lie to give Tonya a motive to commit murder. I tend to believe his statement is truthful. Beebe would be far better off NOT saying such a thing. It makes him look really bad to the community and a jury; it means he did his cousin wrong. He could look more innocent and decent if he just said he was hanging out with Amy watching videos and Tonya got it all wrong, that crazy, jealous paranoid woman.

Jame was asked in an interview what he would say to Beebe and he responded, "I would ask him what the hell is wrong with him?" That struck me strange the first time I heard it because it was not what one would expect someone to say to a person who had just brutally murdered his wife. But, if James actually believes himself that Beebe's has merit and Tonya did catch him him with Amy, then the statement makes sense. James would be terribly hurt and disgusted that his own cousin would go behind his back to make time with his wife. He would know Beebe didn't kill his wife but his bad behaviors pushed Tonya over the edge and put his wife in harm's way. As James said numerous times, Amy needed to be home where she would be safe.

If James really does believe Beebe's story - in his heart if not in his head - this would explain some of his odd interviews where he talked about Amy in glowing terms but did not show a lot of appropriate emotion. He wanted to remember his "perfect wife" and forget that maybe some of her own choices and behavior led her to that fateful day (and this is not about blaming the victim but understanding how crimes end up occurring). He may want to create a less painful memory to live with. I can understand this but, if it turns out as I believe it will that there is more to this story than many want to believe (Beebe = pure evil, James and Amy = pure goodness) , then he is going to have to deal with that when the defense presents its case in court.

And the most important issue they are going to address is why Amy went willingly with Junior Lee Beebe, Jr.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown