Thursday, December 15, 2011

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Why Madeleine McCann is Likely Dead

No one likes to think of an abducted child as being dead, least of all the parents. Even detectives on a case hold out hope that a kidnapped juvenile will be found alive and returned home to his or her family. Police officers deal enough every day with sad endings and they cross their fingers and hope that this time, they will save a child's life, not find her skeleton in the weeds along the side of a road. They would like to triumphantly reunite the child with her parents, not knock on the door and deliver the dreaded message to the poor mother and father.

But, then there is reality. Most stranger abductions don't end well unless you stop them in progress. Unfortunately, the statistics out there on child abduction are vague and distorted. In spite of stranger child abduction being a major fear of parents the world over, it is hard to the actual facts on the issue. Here are the only bits I could find on the statistics:

115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. (These crimes involve someone the child does not know or someone of slight acquaintance, who holds the child overnight, transports the child 50 miles or more, kills the child, demands ransom, or intends to keep the child permanently.)

In 46 percent of non-family abductions, the child was sexually assaulted.Of abducted children who are ultimately murdered, 74 percent are dead within three hours of the abduction

Okay, so what do we actually have here? Of the 115 stereotypical kidnapped children, a good portion of these are pre-teens or teens that sex predators took and killed or enslaved as their little wives. A bunch are babies that some women wanted to pretend were their own. Some of these children were found quickly, within hours, and were saved from a worse fate. Some were kidnapped by a close acquaintance who was angry with the family for some reason.

Very few are toddlers or little girls from ages three to five. There seem to be no exact statistics on the age of the children abducted, by whom, and what happened to them. So, in lieu of finding these, I put out a challenge to the folks that believe statistics support Madeleine McCann being alive. I asked people to give me the names of little girls who had been abducted by total strangers who were found alive after months or years. So, far I have had only one name given to me; Tara Burke, a toddler who was found alive ten months after she was abducted by a sexual predator duo. This crime was 29 years ago in 1982.

I can, however, name little girl after little girl who was abducted by a stranger and was found dead in the following days, weeks, months, or years. But, so far, I have only been given the name of one child victim over a period of three decades who was found alive. I am sure there are a few more but the point I am making is there are incredibly few of these cases with a "happy ending" in comparison to little abducted girls who have been murdered by their kidnappers. Yes, a few preteen and teen girls have been found alive after being abducted: Jaycee Dugard, Elizabeth Smart, Natascha Kampusch - these girls were kept as sex slaves and were at an age the rapist viewed them as "young women" who should enjoy being taught sex techniques and could learn how to please the captor. Little three-year-old girls like Madeleine McCann are not going to do well in the "girlfriend" department and will lie there and cry and scream. Little girls are raped and murdered almost 100% of the time. Sad but true.

Therefore, if Madeleine McCann was indeed kidnapped by a stranger, there is very little possibility she was alive even three hours later. Does that mean a truly good tip should be ignored that points in the direction that she is alive and held captive somewhere? Of course not. She could be the one in whatever high number that wasn't murdered. But, detectives have to be realistic when it comes to using resources. They can't waste millions of dollars and massive hours of manpower running down ridiculous sightings and unlikely scenarios.

Likewise, Gerry and Kate McCann should tell donators that, although they hope Madeleine will be the miracle child recovered alive this decade, they recognize the chances of that happening are very, very slim. Then, if people want to contribute to finding a perpetrator who might have taken Maddie and killed her (to get justice and save other little girls), they can do that. If they want to give money in spite of the horribly poor odds of finding Madeleine alive, this is their choice. But the McCanns should tell the truth and donators should know it.

The McCanns, if they didn't have anything to do with the disappearance of Madeleine McCann and want to find her and who took her, they ought to be using donations to look for a dead child in Praia da Luz buried in someone's backyard.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

My ebook, Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann, removed from Amazon following threat of legal action by Carter-Ruck on behalf of Gerry and Kate McCann, can still be found online at Barnes and Noble and Smashwords. Keep posted for news of my upcoming legal action with attorney Anne Bremner against the McCanns for tortuous interference with business and libel.


AnnaEsse said...

Excellent piece, Pat.

Anonymous said...

You are talking in forensic psychology of intrafamiliar as that person or child that is a victim of someone inside the circle of the family.

Or extrafamiliar as someone outside as a 'stranger' to the victim or the family.

With that set category we have the age of the victim who is either a none walking victim as a baby, or an infant as none talking, communicative victim, a school age child of 4 to 7, or coming up to doll age sex symbol as Jonbennet was. Then you have the pre-puberty victims who have not yet menstruated, and then the school age mother figure victims who have. The latter are the ones found alive in the ages of young teen or emerging teen as slaves for men and women as you rightly say.

We have to look for someone where a person would bury someone or hide and that is graphic in what search teams do. You cannot say with any certainty that someone is alive unless you are their captor, or know who has them and why.

Often in domestic disputes children are taken and this might be the case if one caregiver does think they own the child, or use it as power. But in the scenario of predatory sex offender the likelyhood of life is very slim statistically due to the acts performed on the child or emerging teen. Less likely as the time goes by is any visual sighting.

Children stolen by a loving person at random where others are dismissed are likely to be hidden and their identity changed to fit the service they are in. Sad but true the searchers look for where a person may be hidden in the immediate vicinity of where last seen by independent persons. I say that as to see someone fully is in natural light and not in a doorway or dorm.

Anonymous said...

well said,
but alas to ask the mccanns to do any thing to find Madeleine is like talking to a brick wall,you have to remember the mccanns cant make money out of actually looking for Madeleine,no we all know which route they are taking and Madeleine is at the bottom of the list.poor child

SteelMagnolia said...

Latest possible McCann scam. There was never a leaked diary, the diary was fabricated to sell for financial gain. But Kate McCann hates Sandra Felgueiras...reminds of that movie Carrie...' I hate Carrie White'.....yesterday Myler said the 'diary' was leaked by a FEMALE Portuguese Journalist..well we have a choice, Sandra ...or Sandra ..AND Clarence Mitchell would have told Myler to say that !Kate you may remember at the Leveson Inquiry claimed the diary was translated into Portuguese and then back again into English. Sandra chosen to report on the McCann case because of her good English. Gerry had the hots for Sandra and Kate knew early interviews with Gerry and Sandra then WATCH Kates face...

rainbow-fairy said...

Who WOULDN'T have the hots for Sandra Felgueiras? She is gorgeous! Gerry McCann could only dream of getting a woman like her... No, thanks to their lies, Gerry is stuck with Kate and Kate stuck with Gerry! Well que sera, that's Karma for you!
Very good piece as usual Pat, and all the luck in the world with your suit, just whip those McCann a**es!

Anonymous said...

Pat brown whilst researching your book on madeleine mccans disapearence did you turn up any evidence of the political interference by the then labour govt. of gordon brown on the bankrupt portuguese socialist govt. of jose socrates, to get the case against the mccanns shelved?
It seems to me that such pressure was used since no other logical explanation as to why the mccanns were not remanded in custody whilst the portuguese police continued building up the case as supported by the DNA & Cadaver Dog Scent of Death indications.
Do you in fact give any credence to the idea of political patronage being the saviour of the mccanns?

Anonymous said...

Thank you Pat for your work and for the hope you give us that justice will be served on this case.
I have no hope that we will one day know why the McCanns were not prosecuted, why they were protected and who protected them, but i do hope that the world will see their true face, and discover the depths of their hyporcrisy and lies.
I have to say, the more time goes by, the more transparent they appear to me and i am stunned by the attitude of the likes of Mr Levenson who seem completely blinded by them. I can't wait to hear what they will come up with their team when they will face Goncalo Amaral in February.
Please do not give up!

joan said...

This is so sad but I believe you are 100% right.

Thank you
joan and the crew

Anonymous said...

..."using donations to look for a dead child in Praia da Luz buried in someone's backyard"... Jesus you're good! McCanns made a huge mistake challenging you expertise eye. If I were Kate knowing you're about to cross Atlantic ocean I would not be sleeping at night!!!!

BountyHunter561 said...

Jaycee Dugard?(Sp)

Anonymous said...

jaycee Dugard was 11 years old when was kidnaped. We can imagine why. This case has nothing to do with Madeleine McCann who vanished with 3 years old.

Anonymous said...

Ms. Brown, I got your book at Barnes and Noble, e-book, book nook. It is well written and makes perfect logical sense. This case lingers in my mind because my grand daughter,now 3 is the spitting image of Madelain (with out the eye abnormality). I completely agree with your analysis. Has there ever been follow-up? What do you think happened to her body? Why hasn't she been found? AND, I swear I saw Ms. McCann (complete with blond friend and UK accent)at an upscale mall here in Northern VA.