Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

The concept of Occam's Razor, that the simplest explanation is likely to be true, is useful when analyzing the case of missing Madeleine McCann. With Scotland Yard having flushed millions of pounds of British taxpayer's money down the toilet in an effort to promote the most ludicrous of theories (in complete opposition to Occam's Razor), I want to step back to the night of May 3, 2007 and examine the simplest of answers.


Why did the McCanns leave Madeleine and her siblings alone in the vacation apartment evening after evening? 

Because they were not worried that anyone would get into the apartment or that the children would get out.

Why were they not worried that anyone would get into the apartment or that the children would get out?

Because the apartment was thoroughly locked down so that it would be extremely difficult for anyone to get in or for the children to get out.

As then it would be routine for the McCanns to lock down the apartment when they went to the Tapas bar in the evening, would it be likely that they would change their routine on the evening of May 3, 2007 and leave the doors unlocked so that someone could get in or that one of their children could get out?

No.

Therefore, it is most likely that the apartment was locked down on May 3, 2007.

Yes.

Oh. 


Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

September 6, 2012

Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann available at Smashwords and Barnes and Noble.

By Pat Brown
Rating:
(5.00 based on 5 reviews)

Published: July 27, 2011

What really happened to Madeleine Beth McCann in Praia da Luz, Portugal in 2007? Was she abducted as the Gerry and Kate have claimed or did something happen to Madeleine on May 3 in the vacation apartment and the incident covered up? Criminal Profiler Pat Brown analyzes the evidence and takes the readers through the steps of profiling, developing a theory that is intriguing and controversial.

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Sherlock Holmes on Scotland Yard's Madeleine McCann Review

W: So, Holmes, what do you think Scotland Yard is doing in the Madeleine McCann case?

H: Well, Watson, there are only two options: they are searching for truth and justice or they are using four million taxpayer dollars to cover up a crime.

W: What would show they are searching for truth and justice, Holmes?

H: They would be seeking justice for those who perpetrated crimes against a little three-year-old girl.

W: So, let me see if I have this right; they would be following evidence and statistics which would mean they would look at the parents first since there is evidence that they were the last ones to see her, they admitted to her neglect, and because cadaver and blood dogs hit in their apartment and car, and they would also investigate the parents because statistics show caretakers are the ones most likely involved when a child of Madeleine's age disappears or dies in their care. Then, if the parents can be cleared, they should look for a local child sex predator who murdered her since statistics overwhelmingly support a child this age would be kidnapped, raped, and murdered within an hour by a man living in the vicinity.

H: Correct, Watson. But, Scotland Yard hasn't spent any time analyzing the possibility of the parents' involvement in their daughter's disappearance nor have they spent any time focusing on the vicinity of the McCann's apartment or a local child sex predator.

W: I am confused, Holmes. Are you saying that they have spent four million dollars sifting through tips that would take them out of Portugal in search of a live Maddie living with a family somewhere?

H: This is what appears to be the fact, Watson.

W: Well, then, Holmes, I would have to deduce that Scotland Yard is rife with dunces or corruption.

H: Bravo, Watson! I think you have hit the nail on the head! All the evidence points to Madeleine McCann being dead but her parents and Scotland Yard have collectively purportedly spent some eight million dollars not seeking justice for little Maddie and not seeking to punish the perpetrator or perpetrators, but instead appear to be focusing on a statistical anomaly in spite of evidence to the contrary; they want the public to believe she is alive and being cared for by strangers for the last five years. Yet none of the investigators, not the McCann hired PIs nor Scotland Yard, has presented ONE shred of evidence to validate this cock-and-bull theory.

W: Then, why, Holmes, are so many attacking the Portuguese police, retired Detective Goncalo Amaral, Criminal Profiler Pat Brown, and the others who have worked to analyze the case and provide theories and evidence of Madeleine having died in Praia da Luz on May 3, 2007? These folks haven't been milking the public and citizens of millions of dollars and then refusing to show them any of what they have discovered during their investigations.

H: Ah, Watson, I guess because there are a lot of people out there who just can't accept that Madeleine McCann is dead, has been dead, and will be dead, and there is not going to be a happy ending to the story.

W: Whoa, Holmes, aren't you afraid to say unequivocally that Madeleine McCann is dead? Aren't you worried the McCanns and Carter Ruck will be suing your deductive ass?

H: Well, let them have at it, Watson! Since I am a fictional character, they can sue me for my fictional money, and I will happily send them a fictional check for the fictional Madeleine Search Fund with my fictional signature on it. Good luck cashing that at the bank.


Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

July 6, 2012

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: What I Hope to Accomplish in Portugal

Sunday, February 5, 2012 (Washington DC)

Many of you are wondering what I expect to accomplish in Portugal for the two week period I will be in the country. Some have scoffed on Twitter that I am on a fool's errand or some egotistical fantasy trip, that I think I am going to pop over to Praia da Luz and solve the McCann case in a snap. Hardly. I am not that unrealistic nor am I so blind to reality and my abilities that I think I am going to do any such thing. What I am trying to do is learn a bit more. Since my book, Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann did earn some dividends (although not much since it was pulled from Amazon under threat of Carter-Ruck and the McCanns) and I stated I would put fifty percent of the earnings toward searching for Madeleine, I am doing that with the money.

I am approaching this case as I do others I have profiled. I plan to survey the area and then reanalyze the crime based on what I learn. Then, I plan to search in locations I believe Maddie may be.

I can accomplish the first part of the plan within ten days. The second part is unlikely to be fully accomplished and may require me to return to Portugal if I think another search has merit. I also may run into the "unknown factor" while I am in Praia da Luz. I may come across new information that will add to what is publicly known of the case or something that could change my profile. Although my top theory is that the evidence points to the McCanns involvement, the next most likely theory is that a local pedophile grabbed Madeleine and walked off with her to his lair. I do not at all believe Madeleine's disappearance had anything to do with a sex ring or someone who wanted a child. I do not believe Madeleine was taken away alive in a car. I believe Madeleine is not alive, whether the McCanns are involved or not.

Could I change this view? Sure. If I get to Praia da Luz, start analyzing the layout of the area and, suddenly, say, "Well, hell, if I had known that...." I don't expect this will happen but you never know. Being at the crime location is extraordinarily valuable when analyzing any case and this can change everything. If I do a one-eighty, I will not shirk my duty to disclose this and I will revise my profile as necessary.

What I won't be doing in Praia da Luz is going around questioning people. I am not a private detective and I don't have the right to do so in Portugal anyway. I won't refuse to talk to people but I am not knocking on doors and demanding people answer my questions. I will be analyzing and reconstructing the crime by way of the locations I can publicly access or have permission. I will do some experiments as to how long it takes to walk from A to B, check to see how easily something could be accomplished or how easily one can be seen carrying a child in certain places, and where a person could stash a body or not.

I will be searching for Madeleine in locations I believe have some merit. I am not going to discuss on this blog exactly where and how. I will tell you that when I get back.

Do I expect to find Maddie or the big clue that will lead me to her? The odds are not great that I will leave Portugal having accomplished that. I hope to increase my knowledge of what exactly happened to Madeleine. And, if I am really, really lucky, maybe I will unearth something of great value.

I am looking forward to my two weeks in Portugal. I am very curious to see what I will learn. I will try to blog daily on what I am doing and finding out (that I can release) and I hope all goes well. If, when my two weeks is up, I feel the trip was productive and I could use more time in Portugal, I will make a second trip to Praia da Luz in the coming months and continue my work.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: My New Amazon eBook! Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann

I have received a lot of requests to analyze what happened to Maddie four years ago in Portugal and out today on Amazon is my new Kindle ebook, Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann. It is already the #1 Kindle eBook in True Crime on Amazon UK and is moving up rapidly at Amazon in the US. If you don't have a Kindle, no fear. You can download Kindle to your PC or Mac and read it that way.

If you want a preview as to what this profile is about, read my new post on Women in Crime Ink: Madeleine: Wherein lies the Truth.


Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Out of Sight, Out of Mind

Many Americans are closely following the story about missing Madeleine McCann, a child who is not even from the United States or went missing in the United States. Meanwhile, little Devon Epps, age seven, hardly makes the news. Such is the problem with being dead rather than being a missing person. An incredible amount of money is spent on publicity if a child's fate is unknown, but if the poor little creature is brutally murdered and the body is found, the story is often yesterday's news even if no justice has been served and the killer is still out there. Sadly, this means a lot of money and effort is often wasted on pointless searching for children who are likely just as dead as those whose bodies aren't still undiscovered.

Devon Epps' story is quite tragic. In May, this little boy's bedroom ended up on fire and he barely escaped alive. He had to use a cloth to open the burning knob on the bedroom door to escape and then he ran to wake up Mom who seemed not to want to deal with him at that moment.

Then, in August, his mother, 26-year-old Amanda Reagan Smith, claims she got carjacked, and while she survives (with hardly a scratch) the big, brutal criminal who wielded a knife and made her drive to a lonely spot in a wooded area, little Devon is smothered to death by the carjacker. Ms. Smith claims the man made her get out of the car, and when she did, he locked the doors and proceeded to snuff out her son.

I hope Devon Smith gets justice since he did not get to live a full life, but I wonder if his own community will spend more time paying attention to where Madeleine McCann is rather than ensuring that their own community is safe and that someone pays for the murder of this young, innocent child. I wish we would get our priorities straight and put our concerns and energy toward what would really make a difference in making our world safer.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown