Sunday, February 5, 2012

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: What I Hope to Accomplish in Portugal

Sunday, February 5, 2012 (Washington DC)

Many of you are wondering what I expect to accomplish in Portugal for the two week period I will be in the country. Some have scoffed on Twitter that I am on a fool's errand or some egotistical fantasy trip, that I think I am going to pop over to Praia da Luz and solve the McCann case in a snap. Hardly. I am not that unrealistic nor am I so blind to reality and my abilities that I think I am going to do any such thing. What I am trying to do is learn a bit more. Since my book, Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann did earn some dividends (although not much since it was pulled from Amazon under threat of Carter-Ruck and the McCanns) and I stated I would put fifty percent of the earnings toward searching for Madeleine, I am doing that with the money.

I am approaching this case as I do others I have profiled. I plan to survey the area and then reanalyze the crime based on what I learn. Then, I plan to search in locations I believe Maddie may be.

I can accomplish the first part of the plan within ten days. The second part is unlikely to be fully accomplished and may require me to return to Portugal if I think another search has merit. I also may run into the "unknown factor" while I am in Praia da Luz. I may come across new information that will add to what is publicly known of the case or something that could change my profile. Although my top theory is that the evidence points to the McCanns involvement, the next most likely theory is that a local pedophile grabbed Madeleine and walked off with her to his lair. I do not at all believe Madeleine's disappearance had anything to do with a sex ring or someone who wanted a child. I do not believe Madeleine was taken away alive in a car. I believe Madeleine is not alive, whether the McCanns are involved or not.

Could I change this view? Sure. If I get to Praia da Luz, start analyzing the layout of the area and, suddenly, say, "Well, hell, if I had known that...." I don't expect this will happen but you never know. Being at the crime location is extraordinarily valuable when analyzing any case and this can change everything. If I do a one-eighty, I will not shirk my duty to disclose this and I will revise my profile as necessary.

What I won't be doing in Praia da Luz is going around questioning people. I am not a private detective and I don't have the right to do so in Portugal anyway. I won't refuse to talk to people but I am not knocking on doors and demanding people answer my questions. I will be analyzing and reconstructing the crime by way of the locations I can publicly access or have permission. I will do some experiments as to how long it takes to walk from A to B, check to see how easily something could be accomplished or how easily one can be seen carrying a child in certain places, and where a person could stash a body or not.

I will be searching for Madeleine in locations I believe have some merit. I am not going to discuss on this blog exactly where and how. I will tell you that when I get back.

Do I expect to find Maddie or the big clue that will lead me to her? The odds are not great that I will leave Portugal having accomplished that. I hope to increase my knowledge of what exactly happened to Madeleine. And, if I am really, really lucky, maybe I will unearth something of great value.

I am looking forward to my two weeks in Portugal. I am very curious to see what I will learn. I will try to blog daily on what I am doing and finding out (that I can release) and I hope all goes well. If, when my two weeks is up, I feel the trip was productive and I could use more time in Portugal, I will make a second trip to Praia da Luz in the coming months and continue my work.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown


Kathie Sikes said...

Good luck Pat & God Bless U I hope u have people to protect U:-) Are u staying at the same resort? I'll be praying U find the answer:-) Why did this happen to a beautiful little girl & what parents leave 3 little children alone? I'm picky about who watches my dog. afraid they will give her table food & upset her stomach . thanks for all you do Kathie Sikes N Hutchinsin Island , FL .

Anonymous said...

Pat I sincerely wish you good luck and hope you can find just one thing that can point to an outcome, whether positive or negative; although no many can after this time, or by nature of the disappearance believe Madeleine is alive.

Many I'm sure have trod the path before you, even the PJ did their own review, yet alone the various media outlets from the UK, private detectives and probably the MET.

But I feel a great sense of something optimism about your journey.

May it be successful.


Anonymous said...

Pat. Please follow this clue. Gerry Mccann returned to the Uk just 3-4 days after Maddie was abducted. All evidence to this has been erased from the internet. He returned ostensibly to get a good photo of Maddie for publicity purposes (they had a camera full of photos with them!!). Internet forums discussed this but it has been erased and people have short memories. Gerry came back alone, was met at the airport by local police, they drove him to the house, he was there for about 30 mins and went back to Portugal immediately. To reiterate this was 3-4 days after the disappearance. What did he do at home? who was with him to ensure that nothing incriminating in the house was flushed down the toilet? Was there a cupboard full of childrens sleeping medication. or something else?? Please investigate

Anonymous said...

Good luck Pat. A very realistic and pragmatic approach to take.

I commented here once before re: the UK Press: "This won't happen through headlines..."; I still think that is the case. It isn't simply an issue of pro/anti sentiments, it runs much deeper I think. Child protection is something of a litmus test for UK Society, it cuts to the very heart of our ailing 'culture'.

We can be known by the way we treat our children - our most vulnerable - and in all echelons of UK society, this question doesn't sit comfortably. By and large, people don't *want* to know.

The UK is not a deomocracy. We exist in a position rather like that of the old Eastern Bloc. Leveson, for example, is nothing more than a turf war. Government, "Police" and media are simply vying for their greater share of the pie. It has nothing whatsoever to do with freedom and accountability; it is the single beast of 'State' negotiating the turf of its varied agencies.

You are up against it. As I'm sure you know!! This isn't to say that such a trip is futile - not at all - but I think that only the most concrete of facts can move this single case forward.

As for freedom of speech. Well, that is a long hard slog. It's impossible to underestimate the extent to which we have, already, been robbed of our autonomy.

The fundamental truth of our media is neither pro nor anti, it is just that they *don't care*. This story sells copy and sets the forums alight, that is all that matters to them. And should events turn against the Mcs, then the media will turn on a sixpence.

Don't sweat on the media!

All the best.

Anonymous said...

May the road rise to meet you,
May the wind be always at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
The rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May God hold you in the palm of his hand.

May God be with you and bless you:
May you see your children's children.
May you be poor in misfortune,
Rich in blessings.
May you know nothing but happiness
From this day forward.

May the road rise up to meet you
May the wind be always at your back
May the warm rays of sun fall upon your home
And may the hand of a friend always be near.

May green be the grass you walk on,
May blue be the skies above you,
May pure be the joys that surround you,
May true be the hearts that love you.

Anonymous said...

thank you pat for the update,you never know your luck in what you may find, hopefully you may arouse enough interest for people to come up to you with things that might help you,so make yourself know to the people of pdl.good luck but do take care.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget to interview the priest!

Pat Brown said...

Due to haters posting nasty comments on here every few minutes, I have had to turn comment moderation on. Bullying me on my own blog is not free speech; it is harassment and stalking.

As to other reasonable minded people, I will be putting up your comments as soon as I have the time to do so.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Pat for your efforts to help solve this very sad case. I wish you God's speed and I will say a clarity prayer for you. I really hope you can find out more then what we have been told so far. Justice for Maddie!

Anonymous said...

Good luck Pat,whatever you find,or indeed if you find nothing out,thankyou for caring and at least trying to bring some common sense into this case.God bless.

Pat Dumas said...

This investigation needs a thorn in its side-- and I hope you are it. The McCann's NEED a thorn on the backside. Why aren't they back and forth to Portugal like good, hysterically sad parents should be?

I hope you find some good info. Keep at it Pat. I enjoy reading your adroit comments on cases.
pat @the jersey shore

Anonymous said...

Good luck Pat! Take care!

Anonymous said...

Pat. I wish you had a way to ask and recieve questions from the public. I have a couple that might interest you.`A simple email from you to me will get you 2 that noboby has ever considered that I can find. larrycalcutt At Hotmail dot com ... try before you go to Portugal.

Anonymous said...

im sure you will get close to knowing exactly what happened when you are in pdl & i wish you all the best
pat brown fan

Angelique said...

I too, wish you well in your search in Praia da Luz. It is very heartening to know you are interested and care about finding the Truth.

I am also optimistic that being in the area will help clarify any existing queries regarding the disappearance of Madeleine.

I remember seeing a video on YouTube where a young woman said that being there enables you to see things differently.

Good luck and take care.

SteelMagnolia said...

Hello Pat , if I could I would be right by your side, ill health prevents me from doing so alas.

Pat, in September 2007 there was a documentary, Spanish reporters went down to Luz and did their own investigation they heard through villagers that the McCanns had been to a bar called Chaplins right next door to the church,the CHURCH McCann claimed he did not know existed and had to enquire where it was!!!!

Reports at the time they had visited Chaplins on more then one occasion.

All my love and good wishes and remember the 'FUND' is paying for a bunch of thugs that are the McCanns PR team in portugal !

Anonymous said...

I commend you Pat as well as Dr Goncalo Amaral and Anthony Bennett.

Indeed, anyone who shows respect whilst pursuing the TRUTH as to what happened to Madeleine.

Some seek to cover up and some ignore.

Good luck.

Anonymous said...

Best of luck Pat! I hope you enjoy your time in PDL, it looks beautiful!
I hope your trip is helpful to you.
Also - I would like to state that I,a British citizen have NEVER left any of my children alone whilst eating out - on holiday OR at home - it is NOT British Culture.
:) Thank you for the opportunity to say that - it has annoyed me more than you can possibly imagine! :)

Anonymous said...

Dear Pat

You're already in Algarve when I wrote this note. I'm sure as soon as you do the reconstitution things will be clear as water :)

Wish you and your team a good job in the field, good weather and a warm welcome from locals. I'm sure you will have it all :)


Anonymous said...

Pat the nasty comment's are despicable to say the least,you are to be admired for going to Portugal at the cost to your self when Madeleine's parent's wouldn't even pay a baby sitter.A lot of people here in the UK are right behind you and are so grateful for what you are doing,weather any new fact's come to light or not you have tried, and that is all we have ever wanted fair reporting on Madeleine's disappearance, thank you so much.

MaryK said...

Much luck to you in your quest for facts and answers. I bought your book from Amazon right after it came out and enjoyed reading your theory. Take care.

Anonymous said...

Pat, you should talk with OC employees, special the ones who lost their jobs. They must know something regarding the holidays of that group. People in Portugal believe there was Swing activities inside the Resort and that could be the reason for the cover up. You must highlight to that workers what is the last plan of the Mccann's, clearly said on Kate's book: they are prepared to incriminate the OC workers with the idea of the abductor entering the flat using a key. Those workers need to break their silence and tell what they could have seen, for their own defense.
Good luck.

Pericles Pinto said...

Please don't forget my suggestion for the body location: Barragem da Bravura.

Just take the trip: Lagos > Odiáxere > Barragem da Bravura. 25 minutes by car.

Even if it's only for the scenario...

Steven Colquhoun said...

A child Madeleine's size could be stored in a large suitcase and hidden until the right time to move her small body. Did the McCann's and the others leave Portugal with the same amount of luggage? Did anyone purchase a large suitcase before or after the 3rd May 2007? It's a thought and may have been looked into already? Good luck and leave no stone unterned.

Pericles Pinto said...

My favorite theory is that the McCanns handed the body to someone willing to help them cover up the accident. This person hided the body in a refrigerator. Sometime later on, a funeral took place.

Where was that? Some people say this occurred during their trip to Spain.

I'm more convinced about the Barragem da Bravura location.

Anonymous said...

just for the record gerry did not go to the uk three days after, this is totally wrong, all videos and photos show him in pdl, it was 3 weeks after and its not wiped from the internet,itwas on this trip he got the pillowcase for dna and the last photo was released around this time