Thursday, September 13, 2007

Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Is Maddie in England?

IF the evidence we have heard recently exists concerning Maddie's DNA and hire in the boot of the hire car and the McCanns were involved with the disappearance and death of their daughter, Madeleine, here is what I think could have happened. I have been considering WHY anyone would move a body from one location to another after twenty five days. If Maddie's DNA from decomposition of her body is really in the hire car, what purpose would there be in moving her body at that time?

I can think of only one: they would have to be afraid the Portuguese police were getting closer and closer to discovering what happened to Maddie and they took action. One possibility would be to move her to a location where she could never be found: at the bottom of the ocean. The other would be to move the body back to a location they controlled (the later villa they had rented), they would not have to worry about the police stumbling across their daughter’s remains. With all their traveling about, leaving and entering the apartment with a suitcase is not going to raise any eyebrows. Apparently, the police never brought the sniffer dogs to the new villa and, therefore, Maddie’s body could have remained in a suitcase in a storage area until the McCanns decided to move on. If the decomposition stage was late enough, the issue of odor would be less of a problem).

Kate McCann has stated she would never leave Portugal without her daughter and maybe she was telling the truth. Madeleine is but a small and very portable child. She weighs little and, if she had been decomposing for so long, she would weigh even less. The McCanns returned to England with four large black suitcases. Was Maddie in one of them?

It may unbelievable behavior for a parent, but, many a body has been shipped in suitcases over the course of history and parents have done strange things in desperation or in grief, so this would not be an impossibility. If the McCanns chose to do this and succeeded in not getting caught, they would have outsmarted the Portuguese police, avoided a jail sentence and no one would ever find out what really happened to their daughter. Because the McCanns were familiar with air travel, airports, and entry and departure points, they could determine whether their luggage was likely to be searched upon arrival (and the answer from my experience with travel to England is the chances of them having any problem with scrutiny and searches is low).

If the evidence holds, the British police might search for Maddie right there in Leicestershire, England; who knows what they might find.

Of course, this all depends on whether any of the leaked information about the DNA and hair in the boot of the hire car has any validity at all. If it doesn't, then regardless of the negligence of Maddie's parents in leaving her unattended out of eye and earshot (and I do not think this acceptable parenting even if there are no kidnappers likely to take her), then we are back to a pedophile snatching her. One way or the other, there is little likelihood Madeleine is alive.

At the heart of all crime scene analysis is evidence, both forensic and behavioral. Theories that then prompt investigative avenues are based on what evidence one has in the case. If the evidence changes, then the theory will change with it. This is why no one is guilty until proven so in a court of law. Even the most suspicious of suspects is not guilty until the jury says so.

Are the McCanns guilty or not? I have no idea since I am not inside the homicide investigation. But if there is really any evidence pointing toward the McCanns, then the police should do what they suggest and "Leave No Stone Unturned."

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown


Criminal Profiler Pat Brown said...

I have had questions concerning the smell of the body making this scenario unlikely. If the DNA tests on the hire car are accurate, the body was indeed carried about and, yet, the McCanns continued to ride around in the vehicle. This means the smell, at that point, could not have been so awful. It may be that Madeleine's body was in an advanced state of decomposition called butyric fermentation (in which the smell is reduced to a cheesy aroma) or dry decay (which no longer smells). Maddie was a small child who would have been left out in a warm climate. The decay may well have been fairly quick and she may have reached those finally stages. The car was hired 25 days after Maddie's death but this is not to say she was moved this early.

Also, the hair will also begin to fall off after three weeks has passed, so this would support the later decomposition stage, making the issue of odor less of a deterrent to handling and storing the body.

Please remember, this is a theory only, but it may lend to an investigative avenue that should be explored.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown said...

To questions of baggage and the airlines:

Baggage is xrayed in huge quantity and they are looking for bombs and explosives.

And check this

"The Anderson inquiry into the epidemic urged the government to increase efforts to keep illegal meat out. A recent official survey suggested an estimated 7,500 tonnes of illegal meat is smuggled into the UK in personal baggage each year."

I would say if this is possible, these tons of meat are getting past both checkpoints - departure and arrival.

preraph said...

I'm finding it very difficult to even confirm by doing a news search that blood was found in the hire car. I see some reports that say "DNA and hair" and some that say blood, but on the more reliable news gatherers, like CNN, I see nothing about blood in the car, just hair. And the hair, as of yesterday, was found to not be Madeleine's. Do you know for a fact blood was found, or are the news sources just assuming DNA equals blood?

Michael ( Australia ) said...

Many times people can speculate,
without proof. Yet as Pat Brown has said,leave no stone unturned , exhausting all the possibilities.
So the truth is at times only covered. History has shown us that technology does improve to the relief of all mankind .
The other thing is we all at times act in haste,and we can therefore overlook a small vital pieces of information. I never like to underestimate things including the unfortunate facts( why parents do strange things like by leaving children unattended ) yet I have heard of parents holidaying doing the same thing in Australia with their children , seemingly harmless.
example friends travelled to a casino and left ( dumb ) their young daughters asleep in ajoing rooms upstairs .
So Maddys parents are carry a lot of guilt , and remorse
Regards Michael ( Australia )

Anonymous said...

I do not understand why Maddie's parents left her alone, especially since so many kidnapping/child abduction cases have been publicized. I suppose they thought she would be safe in their room. Negligence as parents does not make them murderers, however.

Whoever took Maddie had been watching. That's a certainty. Surely, someone noticed something. Are they just not coming forward?

Maddie could have been taken by a pedophile, but I seem to doubt that. I believe she was abducted to be sold on the black market for young children, especially blonde children.

Anyway, Spain or Portugal seems connected at the start, but now.....?

Thoughts of a grandmother...